With Diablo 3 coming out May 15th, it’s time for analysts to start piling on as they predict how well the anticipated title from Activision-Blizzard will sell.
Analyst firm Cowen & Company estimates that the title will sell 5M in its first year, which I’d say is a fair bet given that the other games in the series have sold 20M total to date. Not estimated is the possible revenue from the “real money†item auction house system that Blizzard takes a cut of. It could be a huge cash source for them, or the system might not be as popular as they think. Before we know how it works, it’s too early to tell.
The analysts contribute 1M of the 5M in sales to a package deal where Blizzard is offering a free copy of Diablo 3 to those who buy a year-long subscription to World of Warcraft. It may sell, but gamers might have to stop and think whether they have time for both WoW and Diablo, both of which can be exceptionally time consuming games. Diablo, unlike WoW, does not have a monthly subscription model. At least not yet.
It’s looking to be a big year for Activision-Blizzard, as in addition to Diablo 3, there are also expansions for both World of Warcraft and Starcraft 2 out this year as well. And then of course, there’s the annual Call of Duty cash bomb, as even if Black Ops 2 doesn’t set another consecutive record, it will still be a huge haul for the company.
